SCENARIO PLANNING TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS AT AN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISE

The transition to the market economy in the Russian Federation caused a sharp weakening and change in the content of the vertical components of the economic system and a disruption of the existing horizontal information flows. A specialist of an agricultural enterprise must solve the problems of forming the range and volumes of products and assess the existing and expected future market needs for these products. To do this he/she must have information about the current state of the external environment and forecasts for the future. The functioning of domestic agricultural producers under the conditions of economic sanctions applied to Russia has necessitated the rapid development of production for the purpose of import substitution. This necessitates the transformation and adaptation of agricultural enterprises to the changed external environment. In turn, this forces us to adapt the internal environment, including the use of modern management technologies, the development of progressive forms of management of agricultural enterprises. The effectiveness of the implementation of the process approach in the enterprise depends not only on the fact that the principles of process management of technological processes are used at the operational level and when planning operations. It should be noted that each change in process parameters affects the financial and economic condition of the entire enterprise. At the process control level, these changes cannot be foreseen. This explains the relevance of introducing the stage of scenario modeling to support and justify strategic decisions. The article proposes an algorithm consisting of three consecutive blocks aimed at successive diagnostics of the internal environment of the enterprise, direct design and implementation of processes and management of subsystems.

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